IMD predicts hot weather, increased heatwaves this summer: Key factors and reasons explained

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra cautioned that most areas of north, east, and central India, along with the plains of northwest India, are likely to witness two to four more heatwave days than the usual average of four to seven recorded during this period. The worst-affected states are expected to include Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, as well as northern parts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. 

The outlook for April is particularly concerning, with most of India projected to experience higher-than-normal maximum temperatures. Exceptions may occur only in some pockets of the extreme south and northwest, where conditions are expected to remain closer to typical levels, as per the weather department. Meanwhile, minimum temperatures are also predicted to be above average across most regions, though parts of the northwest and northeast could experience normal or slightly cooler nights.

Factors Contributing to the Hotter Summer

Several factors are contributing to the IMD's prediction of a hotter-than-usual summer:

1. El Nino phenomenon

The developing El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean are a major reason behind the expected temperature surge. During El Nino years, sea surface temperatures rise, which usually leads to reduced rainfall and increased temperatures across the Indian subcontinent.

2. Climate change

Global warming is exacerbating temperature extremes worldwide. The ongoing increase in greenhouse gas emissions is causing a rise in overall temperatures, leading to more intense heatwaves.

3. Urban heat island effect

Urban areas, with their high concentration of concrete structures and limited vegetation, are particularly susceptible to heatwaves. The IMD has cautioned that cities may experience higher temperatures than rural areas due to this phenomenon.

4. Delayed onset of monsoon

A potential delay in the arrival of the southwest monsoon could also contribute to prolonged heatwave conditions, particularly in northern and central India.

Precautionary measures suggested by IMD

The IMD has advised state governments and local authorities to take proactive measures to mitigate the impact of heatwaves. Key recommendations include:

• Establishing cooling centers in urban areas.
• Disseminating heatwave alerts and guidelines for public safety.
• Ensuring adequate water supply and medical facilities, particularly in vulnerable areas.
• Promoting awareness campaigns on heatwave-related health risks and precautions.

Rainfall data of March

According to IMD data, all-India rainfall (20.1 mm) until March 31 was the 27th lowest since 1901 and the 10th lowest since 2001. Southern Peninsular India recorded 20.7 mm of rainfall, ranking as the 24th highest since 1901 and the 8th highest since 2001. March saw normal to above-normal rainfall over South Peninsular India and Eastern India, aligning with IMD's earlier projections.